Kalshi’s Weather Markets and UFC Have Similar Trading Volumes, Yet Sports Remain Dominant

(AsiaGameHub) –   If prediction markets ever stop offering sports event contracts, what will Kalshi users place bets on? Could it be the weather?

An analysis of Kalshi’s trading volume from January 1 to April 20 this year suggests that might indeed be the case. Two of Kalshi’s most popular non-sports markets center on daily high/low temperatures and precipitation.

Our colleague Alex Weldon conducted an in-depth data dive, finding that the combined daily trading volume across both weather-related markets on Kalshi has averaged approximately $3,056,405 since the start of the year. A notable detail: for precipitation markets, Kalshi traders were far more active in betting on potential snowfall during winter months.

The peak volume for precipitation markets was on January 4, hitting $5,401,881. Since March began, the highest trading volume—$453,231—was recorded on April 7.

UFC Trading Volume Matches Weather Markets

To provide context, we looked for a niche sport with trading volume comparable to Kalshi’s weather markets. UFC performed well in a direct comparison with the combined weather markets.

From January 1 to April 20, daily trading volume for UFC bets averaged $2,903,762, roughly equal to the weather markets.

Unsurprisingly, UFC betting activity was higher around actual events. The largest trading day came on April 11 for UFC 327 in Miami, which generated $45,019,798 in volume.

We also analyzed a broader range of sports to compare their trading volumes. The UFC’s figures are modest compared to the NBA, which saw daily trading volume exceeding $100 million on eight occasions.

The day after our monitoring period ended (a Tuesday), the NBA recorded $146,947,748 in trades—this year-to-date high coincided with three playoff games: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics, Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers.

Below is the data on sports trading volumes from the start of the year through April 20:

The PGA’s trading volume spiked sharply during The Masters week (April 6-12), with $107,579,136 traded on the tournament’s final day. Last week’s RBC Heritage Classic in Hilton Head, which concluded on April 19, generated $18,623,390 in trading volume.

During The Masters week, sports accounted for 85.8% of Kalshi’s total trading volume. That percentage dropped to 82.5% last week, but it’s clear that sports remain the lifeblood of prediction markets.